I long for the headline that Sam Altman in total collapse ate his own pistol.
once thiel stops pulling his string.
You won’t get the GPUs. Most of the AI hardware is not usable to you. They didn’t just sell all the desktop RAM and GPUs to AI companies, they dedicated most of the production to data center hardware that you can’t use. Relief isn’t coming, what you need doesn’t exist.
I’m more concerned with jobs in the best future, tbh
I’m sure with all these AI startups there’s plenty that used consumer grade stuff because that’s what they could get
Either way though, I run enterprise servers in my homelab so I stand to benefit even if mostly enterprise server RAM and data center class GPUs hit the market
You can rent consumer grade GPUs on cloud servers for your AI computing, so yes
And they’re not going to switch production back to consumer hardware either. Those data centers will be used to sell virtual desktop subscriptions.
At that point I’m willing to raid a data center
Why the fuck would anyone buy this. Come on.
Because they will have no other option once their existing system dies. In this scenario actual PCs will be something only the wealthy can afford. Everyone else gets dumb terminals.
And honestly, VDI is great from a general user standpoint. It’s the companies who run it that make it a bad option.
Well, they’re also a bad option when the data centers hosting them get bombed
I’m far from an expert on these things, but I have a tough time believing that latency won’t be a critical issue for many consumer applications.
With ftth, latency isn’t as big of an issue as it used to be.
Because people are fucking idiots.
Even if the AI bubble collapses tomorrow (it won’t), to see lower consumer prices you would either need old stock to be marked down or the fabs that are currently making AI cards to switch to making gaming cards and those cards to be manufactured and come through the market. That will take months. Not only does the bubble need to pop, but everyone involved needs to believe and accept that it has popped, otherwise they will continue to keep prices high and AI production high in the hope that their plans remain correct.
Remember that it’s psychologically much harder to accept making a less money than you thought, which happens when you mark down prices, compared to making more money than you thought, which happens when you mark up prices! This is why prices tend to be “downwards sticky” and so, instead of going down when demand drops/supply improves, they instead tend to stagnate while other prices continue to rise gradually with inflation.
Also, when the AI bubble pops, nobody will have any GPU money because they need it to bail out the AI companies to prevent the global economy from blowing up and flinging the entire cosmos into Satan’s buttcrack.
By that time, nobody will be able to blink without AI because everyone is using it all the time for everything even though everyone knows the AI bubble is going to pop and the world will go to shit because everyone depends on AI.
I have no idea what we’re doing, but I’m sure it’s fun to watch from far away.
Who said anything about wanting gaming GPUs?
ah I didn’t realise you actually wanted to release your own model 🤔
Release? Probably not
But the LLM tech is cool to experiment with, and there are useful use cases, but trying to run frontier class open source LLMs takes a boat load of VRAM lolol
Oh no, months. That makes solving a problem implausible if the benefits can’t come till months.
The bubble popping probably won’t help since they’ve stopped making consumer hardware altogether.
That’ll start to turn around in a few months once manufacturers lose that easy AI money.
So more or less this: https://youtu.be/T9d6lrvzM9o
Can’t wait to buy some god damn HDDs for my NAS when this is all over. Let the prices crash baby.
Will be interesting to see what the community does to the over-abundant vector matrizes calculators. Probably run DOOM on.
I bought RAM just in the cusp of the jump. September I put it in the cart waiting for Black Friday and October came by and it was up 50% and I jumped on.
But I’m deleting stuff on my NAS. I neeeed some big drives.
I finally bit the bullet months ago and invested into LTO8 for my cold storage, I still need to buy drives at some point, but at least I’ve got a decent path to put shit in the mean time so I don’t gotta delete anything lolol
What did that set you back for how much storage?
Hmm iirc the physical setup (tape drive, auto loader, HBA card for my server) set me back ~2.5k (with the bulk of that being the drive itself) and then the actual tapes was prob another ~1k for 200TBs raw, but more like 100TB actual usable since I use another tape for a backup off-site copy
Almost $4k.
sigh
Not your fault but damn.
Jeez how much porn are you backing up.
I had a Beelink Me Mini and a half dozen NVMEs in my cart around that time, but didn’t pull the trigger when the price started rising and now I’m kicking myself for it.
But I’m deleting stuff on my NAS.
Yeah … until drives become cheap again, my solution is just to go through and see what data I can afford to live without, then delete it to free up more space.
2 of the 6 drives in one of my pools is 7.5 years old. I found that out last week and had to bite the bullet to buy a spare and swap it in. Doing a resilver with those makes me cringe
Amen
Federal Reserve hasn’t raised the interbank lending rate yet. So speculation over values 60 year domination schemes over actual consumer value vs cost now.
As long as you give banks artificially cheap loans with money printed on demand, the bubble can keep going and they can fund R&D we will regret later. Regret it because it doesn’t need to satisfy a customer or use only a reasonable amount of resources. It just has to attract investors with the promise that it will attract investors with the promise that it will attract investors. It doesn’t need a customer when you’ve messed with interest rates.
Your econ class only told you lowering interest rates increases jobs in the short term. It didn’t tell you why. It adds jobs doing less strictly productive things. Long term all economies tend to the same employment level anyway. And long term lowered interest rates tend a market toward bullshit. We get more work but less consumer satisfaction. That’s really to say the cost of living goes up with respect to an hour of work. And you have to compete as a consumer for resources with firms that have access to infinite cheap money.
I don’t wanna rent the hardware for my instance forever :(
Remember how the housing bubble never popped?
Uh are you ignoring the huge financial crises, and how banks had to be bailed out?
I remember housing costs NEVER going down.
Yeah… :(
I doubt that we will get much better prices when the bubble crashes.
The bubble popping will take out a huge chunk of the economy with it. We might not be able to afford more drives even if they come down in price.
How long is this going* to take?
@cm0002 No good answer for RAM right now but with respect to GPUs, consider Intel Arc. I purchased a B50 Pro for a whole of $300, it’s turned out to be a reasonably solid performer. I have SR-IOV working on it now a vf for a windows vm, and one for LLAMA inference, I’m using a mamba model so unlike the big boys my LLM learns on the fly. And this thing draws a whole of 50 watts so you don’t need your own nuclear power plant to run it.
