No it’s simple and not confusing at all: The models are well beyond the point of diminishing returns for investment and the AI bosses know they cannot possibly meet the crazy expectations of the stock markets. So instead of them failing to deliver, they are using this excuse to seem like they’re choosing not to deliver for everyone’s good.
It won’t work - the bubble is going to burst regardless.
The models are still advancing, especially in math and “reasoning”. For example the frontier math benchmark is showing big strides for the frontier models. A year ago they were only getting <10% of questions, now sol from openai is scoring 89% and they’re reporting the unreleased astra is at 98% .
No it’s simple and not confusing at all: The models are well beyond the point of diminishing returns for investment and the AI bosses know they cannot possibly meet the crazy expectations of the stock markets. So instead of them failing to deliver, they are using this excuse to seem like they’re choosing not to deliver for everyone’s good.
It won’t work - the bubble is going to burst regardless.
I agree on the bubble - think less than 2 years before the jig is up.
It’s going to pop before 2027. It’s a pop not a deflate, the money will disappear in a 48 hour period, not that the theoretical money every existed.
The models are still advancing, especially in math and “reasoning”. For example the frontier math benchmark is showing big strides for the frontier models. A year ago they were only getting <10% of questions, now sol from openai is scoring 89% and they’re reporting the unreleased astra is at 98% .