Coding with LLMs (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) is often presented as the ‘killer app’ for Generative AI. But looking at data, it seems the one piece of the puzzle missing is actual cost. …
The thing is this really depends on the speed of some financial events, not some technical failing.
Notably, if OpenAI has to cancel any of their commitments to buy hardware because they find they have neither the money nor can secure even more debt to cover, that event would potentially cause the bubble to pop, even for hypothetical companies that may have been more responsible and might have a viable business approach. Those commitments are coming up, and a lot of analysis struggles to see how they will fund those commitments.
The thing with this bubble is that the investors don’t get the nuance and will flee at signs of trouble in any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or a handful of others, and Altman’s leadership has made trouble at OpenAI very likely, but the investors don’t believe it and won’t believe it’s unique to OpenAI, even if it would be.
What people? All the credible people I read say that things fall apart Q2/Q3 2027 as debt and profit obligations are due.
The only thing that changed is now there is an energy crisis coming, so it’s possible that might force the bubble to pop sooner if all the systemic risk aligns.
people have been saying that for some time though
The thing is this really depends on the speed of some financial events, not some technical failing.
Notably, if OpenAI has to cancel any of their commitments to buy hardware because they find they have neither the money nor can secure even more debt to cover, that event would potentially cause the bubble to pop, even for hypothetical companies that may have been more responsible and might have a viable business approach. Those commitments are coming up, and a lot of analysis struggles to see how they will fund those commitments.
The thing with this bubble is that the investors don’t get the nuance and will flee at signs of trouble in any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or a handful of others, and Altman’s leadership has made trouble at OpenAI very likely, but the investors don’t believe it and won’t believe it’s unique to OpenAI, even if it would be.
The bubble will pop, I think a lot of people are just baffled by how big it’s getting.
What people? All the credible people I read say that things fall apart Q2/Q3 2027 as debt and profit obligations are due.
The only thing that changed is now there is an energy crisis coming, so it’s possible that might force the bubble to pop sooner if all the systemic risk aligns.